The U.S. labor market exceeded many economists expectations in March, with job creation yielding stronger than expected numbers though the broader picture of a slow-growth labor market held intact.
Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 during the month, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000, according to a Friday report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. February’s number was revised down by 41,000 while January was revised up by 34,000 to 160,000, showing a three month average of around 68,000.
The unemployment rate inched lower to 4.3%.
The healthcare industry continued to provide stability even after a recent nurse’s strike. But economic forecasters caution the latest numbers indicate causes of concern for the nation’s economy:
The upswing from February requires a little asterisk. A significant portion of that month’s net job reductions came from striking health care workers, whose work stoppages meant their employers could not include those jobs in the BLS’ surveys. Tens of thousands of nurses and unionized care workers from particularly populous states (California, New York, Hawaii, Washington) walked off for much of February, agitating for better wages and safer working conditions. Health care has been one of the nation’s fewdurable sources of employment throughout the past few years, thanks to demand from older Americans. That meant the lack of complete BLS records in February reflected an especially hard hit to the overall projections. The March surge in health care gigs includes those which have been added back into the broader count.
And remember: These March numbers are projections that will be overhauled in the not-so-distant future. More recent job-report revisions have given us better hints as to the employment situation under Trump 2.0: December saw a net loss of jobs, even though initial estimates projected a gain, and January’s strong job gains saw a slight downward adjustment after the fact. When you take all that into longer-term consideration, job growth does not look so robust.–Slate.com
Additionally, many economic experts are holding their breath over the unforeseen longer-term impact of the Iran war moving forward. Those experts believe the conflict is likely to impact not just oil prices for the foreseeable future but is likely to cause an adverse impact on inflation as well.