Trouble With Iran Played A Major Role in The 1980 Election And 46 Years Later, It Looks Likely To Do So Again

A hostage crisis that began in 1979 in Iran was the catalyst that officially ended what had been a close relationship between the by-then overthrown Shah-led Iranian government and the administration of Democratic U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

The U.S. terminated formal diplomatic ties with Iran in April 1980, a freeze that officially remains in place today. The move came months after Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, the Iranian capital, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days and cementing long-term mutual hostility between the two countries.

By the time the 1980 election approached, Georgia’s first and to date only President, Jimmy Carter, was in a political dog fight. And the incumbent’s policies and his handling of the Iranian problem–including the hostage crisis and oil costs–were on the ballot as well.

After defeating incumbent Republican Gerald Ford in 1976, Carter’s term quickly got bogged down by events that rapidly spiraled out of his control including stagnant growth, high unemployment, skyrocketing fuel prices, and historic inflation.

In some ways, Iran ended up being the electoral straw that broke the camel’s back. A failed mission to rescue the hostages didn’t help: Eight U.S. servicemembers died in an April 1980 helicopter crash that took place before the mission could even initiate.

By the time voters went to the polls on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4, 1980, gas prices were high and consumers were feeling low. Although polls had shown a tight race between Carter and former California governor Ronald Reagan, who was making his third run at the White House, the final tally was a blistering defeat for Carter: He would lose by double digits. Ronald Reagan would win 489 electoral votes (44 states), while Jimmy Carter secured just 49 electoral votes (6 states plus Washington, D.C.).

Famously, the incumbent President conceded to Ronald Reagan at 9:50 PM Eastern Time on election night–before the polls had even closed on the West Coast.

That Tuesday, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States was approximately $1.22 to $1.25–which is a whopping $4.76 to $4.88 in today’s money. As of Sunday, the national average for a gallon of gas is $4.08 while here in Georgia it’s $3.78: Lower what it was in the Fall of 1980, but nearly a dollar and a half more than it was a year ago.

Carter Tells American To Spend Less–Loses In November

The day Carter was beaten, his defeat was shared by his party as well: Republicans won a net gain of 12 seats in the U.S. Senate, taking a 53–46 majority (with 1 independent) and control of the chamber for the first time in 28 years–since 1952.

Republicans gained 35 seats in the House, but Democrats held onto their majority with 242 seats to the Republicans’ 192 (plus 1 independent).

The parallels between 1980 and 2026 are hard to miss. President Carter urged Americans to turn down their thermostats and be content with less as inflation, stagflation, and high energy prices ran rampant across the U.S..

President Trump has also told poorer Americans to spend less, including to buy fewer dolls, while saying the higher cost of gas is a small inconvenience to support a Middle East conflict most don’t understand let alone support, even as prices for everything that isn’t oil is also high and rising including rent, food, and home energy.

The correlating factor: A major source of Carter’s struggling economy? Iran. A major source of Trump’s struggling economy? Iran. Fourty-six years apart but unmistakably similar.

The Strait Of Hormuz, which is a major source of world oil supply, has been choked off by Iran’s ability to threaten or close this narrow passage, stalling major oil and gas tankers, and triggering worldwide energy supply panics.

Higher diesel prices in turn trigger shipping surcharges across the U.S. trucking industry, thereby driving up the retail cost of standard consumer goods.

Economic Anxiety And Frustration

Polls today show Americans are anxious, fearful, and deeply frustrated with Trump’s economy, just like they were with Carter’s economy in 1980: Trump’s approval rating on the economy stands at roughly 37% according to an August Gallup poll, though other recent tracking and specific metrics put public approval ranging between 30% and 37%.

In late August 1980, President Jimmy Carter’s approval rating for handling his job and the economy sank to a dismal 26%, matching his lowest career mark. And although Trump has tried to shift the blame to his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, 60 percent of voters have said in polls that Trump and not Biden owns today’s sputtering economy.

And just like Donald Trump has often done, Jimmy Carter also blamed his predecessor for the economy he inherited after he was sworn in: Carter mocked Ford’s “Whip Inflation Now” (WIN) initiative and tax proposals, stating they led to millions more people being out of work. Carter also criticized the Nixon-Ford administration for causing massive layoffs through tight fiscal policies while failing to stop inflation.

He blamed the Ford administration’s attempts to cut the money supply through the Federal Reserve for sending interest rates soaring.

And Carter labeled rising energy prices and the handling of the oil crises as the most disastrous economic errors of the Nixon-Ford years.

But voters weren’t having it on Election Day 1980.

Congress In Play As Democrats Surge

President Trump is not on the ballot in 2026 but his policies are–and so is his choice to go to war with Iran. Today, polls show the war is a deeply unpopular one, registering approval of it and Trump’s simultaneous handling of it in the 30s, according to the numbers.

And polls also show voter dissatisfaction with it and the economy as prime reasons why the U.S. House Of Representatives is likely to shift to Democratic control after the votes are counted in November.

But now the U.S. Senate is in play also, according to polling. Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff continually leads his Trump-backed Republican opponent U.S. Rep. Mike Collins here in battleground Georgia while a surprising surge of Democrats are holding their own and closing gaps or leading in unexpectedly close, Republican-led states like Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, and South Carolina. This means Democrats could take over the Senate as well.

The Venezuela Oil Deal

Although President Jimmy Carter did not have Venezuela to bail him out on gas prices in 1980, President Trump however announced an energy deal with the country over the weekend, a deal that the administration says will lead to lower gas prices.

But some aren’t so sure when that will happen.

“There’s an opportunity in Venezuela with all the resources there,” ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said at a Januray 9th White House conference. “We don’t have that challenge of finding; we have the challenge of developing those resources.”

In that meeting, Woods called Venezuela “uninvestable,” given the “legal and commercial constructs—frameworks—in place today in Venezuela.” That was Woods’ assessment almost a week after Trump successfully sent U.S. forces to arrest the country’s dictator President.

One of the main reasons that Americans are unlikely to see immediate relief from high gas prices is that the Venezuela deal is linked to just 17 oil fields in the South American country, not access to billions of barrels of already-produced crude oil, which America could use.

And while Venezuela’s fields contain proven reserves, the country does not have the infrastructure in place at this time to produce oil at a rate that would significantly and rapidly affect the wallets of everyday Americans.

And it won’t likely be developed by the time voters cast their ballots in November.

Trump Casts Carter As “Worst President In U.S. History”

President Trump in the past characterized the late President Carter as “The worst President in U.S. history”. But now saddled with some of the same problems that Carter faced, time will tell if Trump’s time in office is remembered even less fonder by voters but unlike Carter, Trump will still have his job after the votes are tallied.

But Trump could face an adversarial Democratic-controlled Congress in January. A Congress that has more than a few folks in it who right now have said they’d like to impeach Trump a third time.

Those Democrats have said Trump’s alleged corruption and his policies are a few of the reasons they want to impeach him.

They also say the war in Iran is a reason to impeach, meaning yet another U.S. President faces a political challenge to his office due to Iran–again.