AARP Poll Shows Lead For Democrats In Georgia’s Gubernatorial And Senate Races: Keisha Lance-Bottoms And Jon Ossoff Lead Republicans; Seniors Likely To Decide Race

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff has secured a commanding nine-point lead over Republican challenger Rep. Mike Collins, according to a major new battleground poll released by AARP. The same survey indicates a razor-thin advantage for Democrats in the state’s gubernatorial race, pointing to strong Democratic headwinds in the premier 2026 midterm battleground.

The extensive bipartisan survey of 1,060 likely voters, conducted July 13–16 by polling firms Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D), found that Ossoff commands 52% of the vote compared to Collins’s 43%. In the race for the governor’s mansion, Democratic nominee and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms holds a narrow 48% to 46% edge over Republican businessman Rick Jackson—a gap well within the survey’s 3-percentage-point margin of error.

Older Voters Hold the Balance of Power

While the top-line numbers favor Democrats, the poll reveals a stark demographic divide by age. Younger voters under 50 are heavily driving the Democratic advantage, whereas older voters remain a stronghold for the GOP.

• The Senate Split: While Ossoff leads by nine points statewide, older voters age 50 and above strongly favor Republican Mike Collins.
• The Gubernatorial Split: Rick Jackson carries a 13-point lead over Keisha Lance Bottoms among the 50-plus demographic. Bottoms offsets this with a commanding 23-point advantage among voters under 50.

Crucially, the 50-plus demographic historically decides Georgia elections. In the state’s 2026 primary elections, older voters accounted for a massive 68% of all ballots cast. Furthermore, 88% of voters over 50 rated their motivation to vote this November as a “10 out of 10,” compared to just 62% of younger residents.

Cost of Living and Local Concerns Drive the E electorate

The AARP Georgia poll emphasizes that candidates must actively appeal to senior-centric issues to secure a win in November. Affordability and the cost of living emerged as the leading, unifying concerns across the entire political spectrum.

Seniors voiced overwhelming support for federal safety nets, with 92% favoring candidates who promise to protect earned Social Security benefits. Another 87% backed expanding Medicare’s capability to negotiate lower prescription drug costs.

Beyond traditional healthcare and retirement security, a unique, modern pocketbook issue has gripped the state. An overwhelming 75% of older voters expressed deep concern that the rapid expansion of AI data centers across Georgia will drive up their residential electric utility bills. A striking 85% of respondents agreed that state policymakers must step in to ensure everyday consumers do not absorb the infrastructure costs associated with corporate AI builds.

A Warning Sign for the GOP

The polling data indicates a difficult landscape for Georgia Republicans, fueled in part by national crosscurrents. According to the Roll Call analysis of the survey, President Donald Trump’s net job approval rating in the state sits at a net negative 16-point margin.

While Republicans prioritize immigration and border security, and Democrats emphasize threats to democracy, economic strain remains the ultimate swing factor. With less than four months remaining until the midterms, the data suggests that while Ossoff enters the final stretch with a distinct upper hand, the ultimate outcome in the Peach State will hinge entirely on which party can better mobilize and satisfy Georgia’s highly motivated older voters.

Democrats See Historic Opportunities

Democratic leads in both races present historic opportunities: If Keisha Lance-Bottoms defeats Rick Jackson, she will become the state’s first female governor, its first Black governor, and its first Black female governor. In fact, she will become the first Black female governor in the nation’s history.

Jon Ossoff made history when he became the state’s first Jewish U.S. Senator from Georgia when he won the seat in 2020. If his large lead over Republican Mike Collins leads him to victory in November, calls for Ossoff to consider a run for President may grow louder–and potentially set him on the path to becoming the nation’s first Jewish President.