Trump Approval Rating Hits Lowest Point Of Second Term–With Republicans

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has hit a record low of 34%, matching the all-time career low he last saw at the close of his first term following the January 6, 2021 insurrection.

Crucially, his support within the Republican Party has hit a new record low of 78% approval according to the late-July CNN Poll. Furthermore, only 19% of Republicans report feeling enthusiastic about the remainder of his second term, down drastically from 38% in the spring.

Key Takeaways from Late-July 2026 Polling

The Core Drop: Data from The Economist / YouGov Poll shows that Trump has deeply fractured his base. While MAGA Republicans remain intensely loyal (+89 net approval), non-MAGA Republicans are highly divided with just 55% approving and 43% disapproving. This marks a precipitous decline from a +84 net approval among non-MAGA Republicans at the start of his current term.

National Disapproval: Nationally, a record-high 62% of Americans now disapprove of his job performance.

The Drivers: The steep drop across the GOP and the general populace is heavily fueled by the highly unpopular war in Iran, alongside sharp concerns regarding the economy, inflation, and skyrocketing gas prices. In the CNN poll, Trump failed to break 30% approval on his handling of Iran (28%), inflation (25%), and gas prices (21%).

Broader Base Erosion: Beyond non-MAGA Republicans, Trump has reached record-low support among Independents (-53 net approval) and White Americans without a college degree (averaging a new low of -6 net approval over the last three weeks).

A president’s approval rating can be a significant factor in how their party performs in midterm elections. Historical trends suggest that a president’s popularity can influence voter behavior and the outcomes of races for legislative seats.

Lower approval ratings may create challenges for the president’s party in upcoming elections. This can impact strategies for campaigning and potentially affect their ability to maintain legislative control.

Although Trump’s current numbers are extremely low, there is a possibility of a rebound as his base his stuck with the President through countless controversies. But if these numbers stand, not only will it ensure Trump’s status as a lame duck president for the remainder of his term, but it could mean a drag on down-ballet races this November.

Factors that can influence election outcomes include:

• Independent Voters: The support of independent voters is often crucial in competitive districts. Shifts in the popularity of a prominent political figure among this demographic can present difficulties for candidates in moderate areas.
• Impact on Down-Ballot Races: The popularity of a president can affect candidates running for other offices within the same party. Sometimes, this can create a challenging environment for local and state candidates.

Divisions within a political party’s base can also play a role:

• Voter Mobilization: Enthusiasm among a party’s base is important for voter turnout in midterm elections. Lower levels of enthusiasm could impact participation in close races.
• Balancing Different Factions: When there are divisions within a party, candidates may face the challenge of appealing to different groups of voters without alienating others.

Historically, presidents with approval ratings below a certain threshold have often seen their party lose seats in the House of Representatives during midterm cycles. The degree of this impact can vary, and can potentially affect control of legislative bodies as well.