President Donald Trump’s economic standing has hit a new low just weeks before the critical 2026 midterm elections, according to a bruising new poll released Thursday. The findings land on the eve of a pivotal monthly employment report that economists say could either stabilize or further complicate the administration’s economic narrative.
Only 17% of U.S. adults approve of President Trump’s handling of the cost of living, according to the latest survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The poll paints a stark picture of an electorate deeply frustrated by persistent inflation and high energy costs, the latter driven upward by the ongoing seven-month conflict with Iran.
The administration’s broader economic management fared little better, securing just a 26% approval rating, while the president’s overall job approval dropped to 31%. Crucially for the upcoming congressional races, 65% of respondents blamed the administration’s own policies—including aggressive tariff implementation—for their financial strain, rather than external global factors.
The White House faces an immediate test of economic reality tomorrow morning. On Friday at 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official September jobs report, providing the most comprehensive look at the labor market since the polling slide.
Wall Street analysts project a stable but noticeably cooling job market. Consensus forecasts predict the economy added roughly 94,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, a deceleration from the 162,000 jobs created in August. The national unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.
Early indicators suggest the labor market has entered a “low hire, low fire” holding pattern. Wednesday’s ADP National Employment Report showed private sector payrolls grew by 90,000, driven largely by healthcare and education.
For the Trump administration, tomorrow’s data carries an intriguing political subtext: With control of Congress on the line this November, the White House needs a resilient labor report to counter the prevailing public narrative of a straining household economy.
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