Eye On Politics: What Role Will Trump’s Approval Numbers, Demographics, And Dollars Play In Gubernatorial Battle?

As Democratic nominee and former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance-Bottoms faces off against Republican nominee and billionaire health executive Rick Jackson to be the next governor of the state of Georgia, several factors are coming into focus.

In any campaign, the top issue is money. Jackson, a health care entrepreneur who reportedly has a net worth that surpasses a billion dollars, has vowed to spend whatever is necessary to win the seat and keep the governor’s mansion in Republican hands. Lance-Bottoms, whose career in Atlanta’s government has taken her from serving as a local prosecutor and judge to also serving as a city councilperson and mayor and later working in former President Joe Biden’s administration, will need to raise significant sums to keep up with Jackson’s deep pockets and whatever monies may come to support him from Republican interests.

But how much money she’ll need is an open question. While Jackson has the surplus advantage, he’ll be running in a state that currently rates President Donald Trump’s job approval at a dismal 36% favorable compared to 57% disapproval, according to Newsweek. Jackson has promised to become Trump’s “favorite governor” if elected–words that Democrats will likely use as the campaign heats up, and support for and against Trump is used in the campaign, particularly if Trump remains unpopular in the state.

Either way, Trump’s image with Georgia voters will impact the race to November. If Trump’s sagging approval, driven by what voters in the state see as seemingly daily news reports about the ongoing war in Iran and alleged corruption coupled with voters’ own concern about money and inflation, continues its sag, then that’s a problem for Republicans statewide, including Jackson. However, if there is a turnaround, then Lance-Bottoms and Democrats will need to voice their message louder that Republicans, after more than two decades controlling the governor’s office, should no longer run the state.

Can Lance-Bottoms make the case that all the challenges facing Georgians are the results of the GOP’s unfettered control of state government for two decades, or will Republicans be able to convince the majority of voters that they need to be able to hold on to power in order to make Georgians live better?

What the political parties do to invest in the state will also play a part. Right now it’s unclear what the level of investment from the two major parties will be in the governor’s race but it’s also likely the race will see investment from both parties along with PACS supporting either candidate.

And then there’s the demographic picture. Over the weekend, Jackson visited an eatery in Democratic-heavy Doraville inside Dekalb county to pitch his candidacy to customers and voters there. Doraville is a majority-minority city outside of Atlanta with a large population of residents born outside the United States, particularly Mexico and southeast Asia–demographics that favor Democrats that at the same time have shown a willingness to vote GOP in state and federal elections. Lance-Bottoms will need to keep any of Jackson’s potential inroads with these communities at a minimal, keeping them in her corner, while she drives up the Black vote, which is about 1/3 of the Georgia electorate, and improves her margins with White voters, who are the majority of Georgia voters.

Trump’s approval with White, working class voters plays into this as well as polls across the country and in Georgia, where polls have shown this demographic souring on Trump and Republican policies. Lance-Bottoms will need to make her case compelling with these voters, many of whom have been reluctant to support Democratic candidates in past cycles while some have never voted for or Democrat in their lives.

According to the 2020 census, Georgia was 50% White. In 2026, the current number could mean Georgia is for the first time since Reconstruction, a majority-minority state. How that factors into the final vote count will be interesting to watch but when it’s all said and done, both nominees will need to work on turnout and messaging to get their voters to the polls.